Annex B

ANALYSIS OF STATE TRENDS AND EMERGING ISSUES

December, 2020



Table of Contents

page 3

Executive Summary

I. The unique character of Hawaiʻi’s population and its shifting demographic and geographic profile should shape the University’s strategies and programming in the Third Decade to successfully accomplish its mission.

FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS:

  1. Hawaiʻi’s population has declined for the last three years, with all of the decline occurring on Oʻahu and modest growth on the Neighbor Islands. By 2030, Oʻahu will account for about 67.4% of the state’s population compared to about 69% in 2020. The relative increase in population on Neighbor Islands calls for the University to consider more distance learning, distributed education, and resources outside of the Oʻahu campuses and programs. The overall population decline suggests that the University develop or expand its efforts to attract new student populations including out of state students, international students, adult learners, and active duty military and dependents.

  2. With better integration of programs across the UH system, students statewide could consider UH to be “one university” and engage in programs that would have one campus as a lead, but with delivery statewide.

  3. Hawaiʻi’s population is aging, with a large and growing number of retirees and the population aged 85+ projected to double by 2045. Academic programs addressing the increased demand for age-related health services will become increasingly important (health sciences, culinary nutritional programs, geriatric medicine, and social work among others).

  4. The aging population and the growing number of retirees will put a strain on the State’s budget, especially considering the large, mandated, unfunded entitlements for State retirees. The University will face legislative sessions in which there is less discretionary State budget available for new or expanded university programs. This suggests that the University will probably need to review, prioritize, or redistribute resources for existing programs to undertake new initiatives.

  5. There are wide variances in success rates among different ethnic categories of public high school students completing degrees or certificates. Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders, in particular, are less successful than the norm; further research identifying the underlying causes for their academic success rate can help point to effective solutions.

  6. Out-migration from Hawaiʻi is high among young adults 18-24, many of whom leave Hawaiʻi to attend colleges outside the state. Apart from leaving for out-of-state school, out- migration may be related to the high cost of living and the relatively weak increases in per capita income, causing young adults to look for brighter and more affordable opportunities outside the state. A coordinated strategy to address negative enrollment trends might include continued support for programs to provide “college for all” or the “Hawaiʻi Promise;” additional financial incentives; and facilitation of transfers from the Community Colleges to four-year institutions. The dispersion of Hawaiʻi residents to the mainland for higher education may also call for developing joint degrees with leading universities to provide students with “the best of both worlds.”

  7. The multi-ethnic nature of Hawaiʻi’s population — including the relatively high proportions of foreign born residents and people who speak a language other than English at home – helps to account for the relatively high percentage of University of Hawaiʻi system students who require assistance in becoming “college ready” in English. Collaborative efforts through the Department of Education and the P-20 program have resulted in significant progress in college readiness and persistence; however, more progress is needed to achieve persistence and graduation goals.

  8. Educational attainment at the associate degree or higher level among adults aged 25+ is somewhat higher in Hawaiʻi than the national average. Attainment levels on the Neighbor Islands are all below the state average. The variance in attainment by county may suggest the need for a greater emphasis on distributed education, adult learning programs, regionally specific workforce training, or expanded general education programs at Neighbor Island Community Colleges.

  9. Active duty military and their dependents are a significant presence in Hawaiʻi and represent a large but generally untapped opportunity for the University of Hawaiʻi system, requiring special programming to develop successfully. Private institutions and online programs have had success offering military students tailored modules in subjects targeted to their interests but shorter than University of Hawaiʻi semesters.

  10. The Hawaiʻi school age population (age 5-19) is projected to grow 10% by 2035 with rates of growth that are higher on the Neighbor Islands. About 43% of post-secondary Hawaiʻi college-bound graduates go out-of-state for college; only about 12% of students graduating from Hawaiʻi public schools enroll in a University of Hawaiʻi four-year program. Developing a stronger position for UH as an attractive alternative to mainland colleges represents an area of opportunity.

II. The Hawaiʻi economy currently relies on a few key industries despite longstanding diversification efforts. Economic growth has been modest and real per capita income growth has lagged. The University can play a key role in supporting the development of new industries and revitalizing existing ones through strategic academic programs that are aligned with the state’s opportunities.

FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS

  1. The University can help foster the state’s economic development by addressing economic opportunities holistically and recognizing the inter-relationships of academic programs within economic “clusters.” For example, the ultimate success of the agriculture cluster in Hawaiʻi requires connections to biology, biotech, food science, agriculture, culinary arts, and business and marketing programs. UHM’s Interdisciplinary Studies (IS) program is a structure that can expand to broadly support cross-disciplinary innovation.

  2. A careful study of the State’s industry clusters, and their talent gaps can offer rich, evidence-based opportunities for economic growth and diversification.

  3. Hawaiʻi’s well-established reputation as a tourist destination coupled with rapidly growing tourism demand in the Asia-Pacific region presents an opportunity to recruit mainland and international students for Travel Industry Management and HOST programs and to develop training programs for other destinations and educational institutions in Asia.

  4. Resident frustrations about the impact of tourism coupled with the Hawaiʻi Tourism Authority’s new emphasis on tourism management present an opportunity to develop new cross-disciplinary approaches in this area that can be the basis for a leadership role in hospitality education. “Smart Tourism” is emerging as a discipline integrating new technologies (big data, data analytics, augmented reality, artificial intelligence, and more) as tourism management tools. Similarly, cross-disciplinary research and curriculum development spanning travel industry management, urban planning, and the social sciences could put the university at the forefront of a global response to “overtourism.”

  5. The concentration and dependence of Hawaiʻi’s economy on hospitality and tourism is concerning. Continued over-reliance on tourism and the sensitivity of this industry to global economic fluctuations threaten employment prospects for UH students. The University, in response, can work closely with the State to strategically develop new economic sectors suitable for Hawaiʻi and to provide education and training for the skills needed to make them a reality.

  6. Hawaiʻi’s well established reputation in Tropical Agriculture and Culinary Arts can contribute to the development of diversified agriculture in the state through innovative agricultural techniques and expertise in developing value-added food products (through Food Innovation Centers and food sciences curricula such as culinology). The availability of agricultural land, Hawaiʻi’s temperate year-round climate and the strength of the Hawaiʻi brand suggest that diversified agriculture and Hawaiʻi branded food and other agricultural products are reasonable initiatives to diversify Hawaiʻi’s economy.

  7. There are existing structures and programs in place in Hawaiʻi to foster economic growth based on currently identified economic sectors (such as technology, tourism, film and others) but there seems to be no coordinated, interagency, multi-jurisdictional approach to identifying new economic opportunities for the state. The University can be a key partner with the state and the various economic development organizations and initiatives to identify such opportunities and coordinate strategic economic development.

  8. The State’s 2050 Sustainability plan calls for the creation of a Sustainability Council with broad representation to foster “open communication and cross-sector dialogue” regarding Hawaiʻi’s sustainable development. The University’s participation in this together with other initiatives like the United Nations Strategic Development Goals and the Aloha+ Challenge, could be the basis for developing coordinated programs around economic and environmental sustainability and managed growth.

  9. Given its strategic location, Hawaiʻi has long enjoyed strong investment from the Federal Government. With new national priorities such as an increased focus on the Indo-Pacific region and the planned “space force,” the University is poised to explore related opportunities for academic programs, research, and workforce training.

  10. New and growing technologies (5G, big data, artificial intelligence, robotics, biotech, and others) underscore the need to prepare a technology-ready workforce. Innovative technologies need to be incorporated across academic programs to keep the University relevant. Equally important, though, is the application of these technologies across programs and disciplines to enhance the University’s signature curricula like astronomy, ocean sciences, travel industry management, health sciences, and others.

  11. The University’s success in attracting extramural and research funding can be a focus for its participation in Hawaiʻi’s strategic economic development initiatives. Expanding these successful efforts may involve reviewing incentives (including tenure and promotion) for faculty to actively engage in innovative endeavors. Adopting a focused approach on research and development projects that are linked to Hawaiʻi’s economic opportunities can create synergies with the state’s development efforts.

  12. Related to Hawaiʻi’s aging population, employment projections forecast dramatic increases in the need for healthcare workers, suggesting the expansion of healthcare programs and the “UHealthy” initiative offered by the University across the system and in the community.

  13. With 42% of Hawaiʻi’s employees working in businesses with fewer than fifty employees, the University’s business programs at both the bachelor’s and associate levels need to have a strong small business and entrepreneurship component. Partnerships with business organizations like the Chambers of Commerce, Small Business Development Centers and others can provide necessary feedback to ensure university business programs are relevant to small businesses.

  14. The structure of the University’s continuing education programs enables them to be nimbler and more responsive to industry workforce needs than academic programs offered for credit. The alliances developed with industry in these programs can be the basis of broader connections between the University and the business community.

III. Since the Second Decade initiative, social, economic, and political developments have emerged that have affected the University’s programs and will continue to drive change into the next decade.

FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS

  1. Some Native Hawaiian and community groups have resisted projects such as the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT), GMO development and other initiatives that UH has supported. The University, with its highly regarded Hawaiian Studies programs across multiple campuses, is uniquely suited to teach and support Hawaiian perspectives on land, development, and governance. These perspectives are relevant across a spectrum of University programs and highlighting them may help bridge cultural misunderstandings.

  2. Increasing the number of Native Hawaiians in graduate and PhD programs will likely contribute to a sense of ownership for programs like the Thirty Meter Telescope and contribute to infusion of Native Hawaiian values into the fabric of the University.

  3. As Hawaiʻi tourism becomes more focused on authenticity and tourism management, the School of Travel Industry Management in the Shidler College of Business can take a leadership role in research and curriculum built on cultural values and sensitivity.

  4. Resident frustrations with the negative impacts of high-volume tourism can be addressed with the development of multi-discipline “smart tourism” technology innovations incorporating content from across departments and campuses.

  5. Negative trends in measures of respect for and confidence in government and other institutions may result in the University being “tarred with the same brush.” Skepticism of established Hawaiʻi institutions suggests the need for a marketing program to proactively position the University system as part of a solution and not part of an establishment perceived to be dysfunctional.

  6. The large number of Hawaiʻi residents who are asset-limited, income constrained but employed (ALICE) underscores the importance of developing educational programs that can prepare students for living wage jobs. Hawaiʻi’s many residents who are economically stressed are also likely to suffer when it comes to educational attainment. Working with other organizations and initiatives to develop programs addressing social issues is consistent with the realization of the University’s broad mission to improve the quality of life in Hawaiʻi.

  7. Societal inequities in economic and social status extend into the University in terms of attainment and representation. In all of its programs and policies, the University should ensure that equity is considered and that inequities are addressed.

IV. University enrollment has declined significantly across the board, affecting both the revenues needed to undertake new initiatives and, in a broader sense, constraining the ability of the University to achieve its mission. Reversing this trend will require effective outreach and the strengthening of the University’s brand and its academic programs to make them more relevant and attractive.

FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS

  1. The success of other large state universities in growing enrollment may provide a model for the University of Hawaiʻi in developing new enrollment programs. The increasing number of Hawaiʻi high school graduates who leave the state for college and the relatively low “going rate” to enroll in the UH system are areas for evaluation and analysis to determine the underlying reasons for these trends. Another opportunity for improving enrollment growth is to increase the percentage of transfers from the Community College System into UH programs (and contain the leakage of Hawaiʻi transferees to non-UH programs).

  2. The large number of asset-limited, income constrained people in the state suggests a continuing need to support financial aid initiatives and to evaluate the effectiveness of financial aid programs already in place.

  3. Despite the intention of the “Hawaiʻi Promise” program to increase community college enrollment by fully addressing financial need, enrollment at the community colleges continues to decline, suggesting that there are additional barriers to enrollment which must be addressed.

  4. The University has relatively low enrollment from non-traditional groups of potential students including adult learners, active duty military, and international students. Attracting these new segments will require new outreach efforts and the development of programs that cater to their unique needs. As with any product development initiative, success in this area will depend on alignment of student needs with the University’s program offerings. Non-traditional academic offerings (shorter modules, remote delivery, distance learning, “mini” certificates, and others) may attract new students who do not currently find the University’s program fit their needs.

  5. The large number of Hawaiʻi residents (210.5K) who have some college credits, but no degree represents a marketing opportunity for increased enrollment to help complete degrees.

  6. The University participates in the Western Undergraduate Exchange, a tuition reciprocity agreement with educational institutions in sixteen Western states. Currently, the level of enrollment into University of Hawaiʻi programs is about equal to the number of students leaving the state to enroll in Mainland institutions. Expanding the promotion of this program to prospective students on the US Mainland is a potential source for increasing enrollment.

V. The success of the University and its programs relies both on adequate funding and on systems for quality assurance that ensure that programs are competitive and meet the needs of students.

FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS

  1. The University benefits from the revenues generated by extramural funding, grants, licensing, and royalties. Programs to target research in strategic economic sectors and to expand incentives for faculty to focus on innovation can potentially enhance these revenues. Benchmarking the University’s performance to comparable institutions and systems can provide an analytical tool for assessing the effectiveness of its efforts.

  2. An analysis of financial and staffing ratios compared with other comparable state university systems points to an opportunity to create a system for the University to develop targets and ongoing assessments of its progress in managing costs.

  3. The University has an extensive system of program reviews through the Annual Reports of Program Data (ARPDs), academic program reviews, accreditation reports, and external evaluations. To foster continuous improvement, a system-level analysis and “report card” on these assessments and the responses to them can highlight both opportunities and gaps in program performance.

  4. Marketing is underfunded and the responsibility for marketing programs is distributed across many units in the system. Current marketing efforts are focused on communications rather than on developing and implementing a robust, comprehensive, integrated plan. Investing additional resources in market research and refining targeting can contribute to a more cohesive brand for the University and result in increased enrollment. A strong brand can create community support essential for maintaining public funding.

  5. The University, through its non-credit continuing education system, has successfully shortened the lead times for developing programs that are responsive to the needs of emerging economic sectors and workforce requirements. The University can study the characteristics that foster this speed and responsiveness in program development for continuing education to determine if they can be applied to credit-bearing academic programs as well. The non-credit programs are not mentioned in the University’s recently adopted mission and vision statements, even though they may be critical in aligning the University with workforce needs.

  6. The State’s Employment Training Fund (ETF) is a workforce training initiative managed by the State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations. There may be an opportunity for the University’s continuing education program to more closely partner with DLIR (or even administer the program on their behalf) to increase the University’s participation in training programs funded through ETF.

  7. The University of Hawaiʻi system now provides faculty support for both distance- and conventional instruction (instructional design, professional development, and others) at the campus level. Separating these services by modality and consolidating distance learning professional development at the system level can provide more focused support for faculty teaching courses remotely.

  8. The University of Hawaiʻi West Oʻahu practice of having its Faculty Senate review and approve distance learning proposals provides a level of quality assurance that is missing at other campuses.

VI. Implications for academic planning

The University of Hawaiʻi is a large and diverse educational system with limited resources serving the needs of a diverse state in a rapidly changing environment. To operate in this challenging environment, the University’s academic programs should be strategically focused in order to fulfill its mission to be “an integral contributor to the success of the state of Hawaiʻi.” i The alignment of academic programs with coordinated strategy is a constant challenge as the state’s needs and conditions evolve along with rapidly changing technology and pedagogy.

  1. To fully support the workforce training needs of the state in a dynamic environment, the University should consider academic degree programs and continuing education to be complementary, integrated delivery systems. The academic programs offer foundational, vetted (and often accredited) degrees, but are slow to respond to changing needs and conditions. Continuing education programs are more nimble and can be targeted to specific needs, offer shortened modules, faster development schedules, and provide credentialing (which can provide students with a path to higher paying positions). Planning at the system level can ensure that these two delivery systems together meet the strategic workforce needs of the state.

  2. Program development for the University often takes years (or even decades) in the face of contentious debate. The merger of the Shidler College of Business with the School of Travel Industry Management, the Thirty Meter Telescope, the Academy for Creative Media, and other programs have been characterized by conflicting stakeholder concerns, political involvement, budgetary restrictions, and other impediments. On the other hand, some programs (the Maui Food Innovation Center, MELE, advanced professional certificates in the Community College System and others) have developed smoothly. The University should study the conditions that characterized these (and similar) successful projects to adopt best development practices but also create a process for early management of the development cycle to deal with and resolve stakeholder concerns.

  3. While many of the University’s career and technical education and other professional programs engage advisory groups to provide input for their content, there is no similar structure at the system level to ensure that the University’s broad workforce development programs are strategic and aligned with State and industry needs. To provide a long-term and strategic foundation for workforce development, the University should participate in — and align with — planning initiatives that the State has adopted (such as the 2050 Sustainable Plan or the Aloha+ Challenge).

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